Russia has begun describing artificial intelligence not merely as a transformative technology but as a geopolitical weapon, one capable of reshaping global power structures in ways comparable to the nuclear age. This argument was sharpened at Moscow’s annual AI Journey conference, where Sberbank First Deputy CEO Alexander Vedyakhin declared that only nations capable of developing their own large language models will wield meaningful influence in the twenty-first century. His comments echoed a broader message emanating from the Kremlin: that technological sovereignty in AI is now inseparable from national sovereignty itself.
AI as a Strategic Marker of Power
Vedyakhin’s comparison between AI capability and nuclear status was not a rhetorical flourish. For Russian officials and industry leaders, the ability to design, train, and deploy domestic AI models has become a litmus test of national strength. The state insists that core systems used in public administration, healthcare, education, and security must be built on Russian models alone. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reinforced this view, arguing that dependence on foreign AI would leave the country vulnerable, politically and technologically.
The analogy to nuclear power serves a political purpose. It suggests that AI will divide nations into those with independent digital capabilities and those forced to rely on others, thereby limiting their global agency. In this framing, Russia positions itself as one of the few countries capable of building indigenous AI, even as Western sanctions severely restrict its access to the advanced chips and cloud infrastructure needed to compete at scale.
A Race for Self-Reliance Under Constraint
Russia’s domestic industry is being marshalled to meet these ambitions. Sberbank and Yandex, two of the country’s most technologically sophisticated companies, are developing national-scale models intended to rival those produced by the United States and China. Yet the limits are obvious. Sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine have curtailed imports of high-performance processors, slowed cloud expansion, and forced companies to improvise with hardware that cannot match Western compute power. The result is a dual landscape: strong political determination paired with structural technological disadvantage.
Despite these constraints, Russia is pushing its narrative of self-sufficiency as both a necessity and a strategic asset. State institutions have already begun phasing out foreign AI systems, particularly in sectors handling sensitive data. As this process deepens, Moscow hopes to build a closed digital environment that mirrors the sovereign internet models adopted elsewhere, particularly in China.
Geopolitical and Economic Stakes
Russia’s framing of AI as the next frontier of global power highlights the increasing tension between technology and geopolitics. By presenting AI development as a sovereignty issue, Russia aims to justify both its domestic industrial mobilisation and its diplomatic push against Western technological dominance. For policymakers in Europe and the United States, this rhetoric underscores how AI has become intertwined with sanctions, export controls, cyber strategy, and national security planning.
Yet the economic message is more cautious than the political one. Russian officials admit that AI investments may not yield immediate returns, warning that large-scale infrastructure spending could strain budgets without producing quick profits. This reflects a recognition that AI, while politically crucial, risks becoming financially burdensome—especially when domestic hardware capacity lags behind global leaders.
Where Russia Goes From Here
Moscow plans to increase the number of home-grown AI systems in the coming years, but its trajectory will remain shaped by limited compute and ongoing isolation from global hardware supply chains. Regulations are expected to tighten further to ensure that foreign AI systems cannot process state or sensitive data. As this narrative hardens, global divisions are likely to deepen, with non-aligned countries pressured to choose between competing technological blocs or attempt a digital balancing act of their own.
While Russia portrays AI as a new form of strategic parity with the West, the reality is more nuanced. Its ambitions may be constrained by economic and technological bottlenecks, but its rhetoric signals a long-term shift: the world is entering an era where digital infrastructure, like nuclear capability before it, becomes a primary marker of geopolitical influence. AI may not replace nuclear arsenals, but it is already shaping a new hierarchy of power that could redefine global politics for decades.