President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to New Delhi for the 23rd India-Russia Annual Summit on December 4 and 5 comes at a moment of shifting geopolitical alignments and renewed scrutiny of Moscow’s global standing. It will mark Putin’s first in person engagement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi since their brief interaction at the SCO Summit in Tianjin in late August, a meeting that took place against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, the reordering of energy markets, and the increasing assertiveness of the United States in Asia.
For the Kremlin, the Delhi summit carries clear symbolic value. Over the past year, Putin’s participation in major international gatherings has been constrained by the International Criminal Court’s warrant against him. While he could not travel to South Africa for the G 20 Leaders’ Summit, India being outside the Rome Statute faces no obligation to enforce the warrant. New Delhi’s decision to host the summit as scheduled therefore is likely to be framed by Moscow as evidence of diplomatic legitimacy and strategic continuity despite Western pressure.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that President Droupadi Murmu will receive Putin and host a banquet in his honour. The Ministry’s statement underlined that the visit offers both sides a moment to review progress across the bilateral spectrum and chart the future of what Delhi continues to call a Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership. The agenda is expected to be wide ranging, covering economic ties, defence cooperation, regional security, and the increasingly complex energy relationship between the two countries.
Moscow has echoed this sentiment. A Kremlin communiqué ahead of the visit noted that the leadership would go over all aspects of the strategic partnership. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, who travelled to Moscow earlier this month, confirmed that several bilateral agreements are nearing completion, with new initiatives also set to be unveiled. Without offering specifics, he suggested that their finalisation would add substance and texture to the partnership, signalling that both sides are working to offset delays and uncertainties caused by the Ukraine war and global sanctions.
Strategic planners in Delhi expect the Modi Putin meeting to confront several critical issues. Defence cooperation remains central. Reports suggest that India is evaluating the feasibility of acquiring up to three squadrons of Russia’s fifth generation Sukhoi 57 fighter jets. This comes at a time when Washington is attempting to deepen its own defence footprint in India. Earlier this year, during Modi’s visit to Washington, President Donald Trump announced that the United States intended to sharply expand military sales to India and ultimately provide F 35 stealth fighters. Yet Indian defence officials maintain that no formal conversation has taken place about purchasing the F 35s, giving Russia’s offer more room to evolve.
Even older commitments such as the S 400 Triumf air defence systems remain unfinished. India has so far received three of the five regiments agreed upon in the 2018 contract. The Ukraine war and Russia’s stretched defence production lines have delayed the remaining two. Moscow insists that India will receive the outstanding units by November 2026, but New Delhi will likely seek firmer assurances during the summit.
Energy cooperation however has become the defining pillar of the relationship in the post 2022 landscape. India’s appetite for discounted Russian crude has elevated Moscow to one of its largest suppliers. Data from Kpler shows that India’s imports reached 1.65 million barrels per day in October and are expected to rise to around 1.87 million barrels per day in November. Yet analysts forecast that these volumes could soon reach their lower limits as logistical constraints, sanctions pressure, and refinery preferences adjust.
Despite this, experts believe Russian oil will remain a structural component of India’s energy basket. Sumit Ritolia of Kpler argues that because Russia currently meets more than one third of India’s crude demand, a complete withdrawal is neither realistic nor desirable. Instead he anticipates a greater reliance on mixed or blended crude, where Russian oil is co shipped with supplies from non sanctioned countries, and increasing use of Russia’s shadow fleet to move barrels to private Indian refiners that are not targeted by Western sanctions.
Former ambassador and energy analyst Talmiz Ahmad supports this view, calling United States rhetoric on curbing Russian oil flows posturing. He maintains that Washington understands that removing Russian oil from the global market would trigger a severe energy shock. Moreover, Russia continues to offer deep discounts, around six dollars per barrel below the international benchmark, to retain India’s business. Recent United States sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil which took effect on November 21 are expected to reinforce Russia’s incentive to maintain these discounts. In Ahmad’s assessment, no alternate supplier is currently offering India comparable terms.
Beyond bilateral concerns, the two leaders are also expected to survey the broader geopolitical landscape. Jaishankar has already signalled that discussions will cover the Ukraine conflict, the crisis in the Middle East, and the precarious situation in Afghanistan. With global power centres in flux and diplomatic manoeuvring becoming more delicate, India appears determined to maintain strategic autonomy by engaging major powers on its own terms.
Putin’s visit is therefore more than a routine annual summit. It serves as a reminder that despite sanctions, conflicts, and shifts in global alignments, the India Russia partnership retains durable foundations including energy dependence, defence interoperability, and a shared preference for multi aligned diplomacy. For New Delhi, the challenge lies in preserving this equilibrium while deepening ties with Western partners. For Moscow, the summit offers a stage to demonstrate that its geopolitical outreach remains intact. In an increasingly polarised world, the meeting in New Delhi reinforces the importance both sides continue to attach to a relationship shaped by history, strategic necessity, and evolving global realities.
